Kalshi and Polymarket Under Siege: Influencers Peddle Election Fraud Lies for Cash

Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt, a former reality TV star, faces a barrage of unsubstantiated claims about election fraud as vote counts trickle in. The MAGA-backed candidate's supporters scream foul play, alleging a conspiracy to deny him a spot in the November runoff against incumbent Democrat Karen Bass.

Influencers on X amplify these baseless theories, pointing to shifting betting odds on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket as evidence of wrongdoing. Some of these influencers are cashing in on sponsored posts from the very companies they promote.

"They are actually doing it. They are counting votes until SPENCER LOSES. Someone DO SOMETHING," influencer Mila Joy raged to her 500,000 followers, sharing a Polymarket graph showing Pratt's plummeting odds.

Commentator David Freeman, known as Gunther Eagleman on X, questioned, "Is CA cheating to get Spencer Pratt out?" He shared a Kalshi post that displayed odds between Pratt and progressive Democrat Nithya Raman, who overtook Pratt's vote share.

Both posts featured the words "paid partnership" in tiny font, revealing the financial backing from Kalshi and Polymarket to influencers promoting their content. This tactic raises serious concerns about the integrity of election discourse.

The Los Angeles mayoral race exemplifies how prediction market data can be weaponized on social media to cast doubt on electoral integrity. This trend signals a troubling preview for the upcoming midterm elections.

Kalshi and Polymarket are infiltrating daily life, igniting legal battles and raising questions about the consequences of betting on anything. They now appear to be at the forefront of political misinformation wars on X.

Disinformation expert Emerson Brooking stated, "From the perspective of the influencer looking to get rich, their only job is to attract attention." He noted that influencers will promote narratives that align with their audience's desires, even if it means alleging fraud instead of admitting betting markets were wrong.

In response to growing scrutiny, Kalshi and Polymarket have begun to rein in their paid influencers. After inquiries from NPR, Kalshi instructed influencers to remove misleading posts. Some posts questioning election integrity have already been deleted.

Polymarket also announced it would pull back sponsorships from creators spreading election falsehoods. While Joy's post remains live, two other influencers have had their "paid partnership" tags removed.

"Companies shouldn't be paying people to spread misinformation," said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College. He criticized the sponsored posts flooding X, noting that fraud allegations resonate strongly within the Trump Republican Party.

Using influencers as social media promoters is a growth hacking strategy employed by tech startups to maximize brand reach. Seton Hall University's Jess Rauchberg described it as a "high-risk, high-reward situation" that generates buzz around the brand.

Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly offered creators up to $500 per post. Inside Kalshi, debates have erupted over the company's responsibility when creators spread misinformation while promoting its site.

A Kalshi spokesperson confirmed that the company now prohibits affiliates from questioning election integrity or undermining official determinations. Previously, Kalshi maintained a hands-off approach regarding affiliate content.

Polymarket also allowed wide latitude for affiliate posts as long as they promoted company markets. There was little vetting of creators; Polymarket even engaged former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who faced serious ethical violations.

Polymarket stated that while it lacks specific language banning election-related disinformation, any post denying election results violates its rules against spreading false information.

Election experts warn that the Los Angeles mayoral race is particularly susceptible to conspiracy theories due to various factors, including prediction market data. Pratt's favorable betting odds fueled speculation despite polls showing him trailing.

California's slow ballot counting process has historically provided fertile ground for unfounded fraud allegations. Many voters use mail-in ballots, which require verification and take longer to count. This method has been associated with claims of fraud by figures like Trump.

State officials are committed to counting all ballots transparently, yet misinformation continues to undermine public trust in the electoral process. David Becker from the Center for Election Innovation and Research emphasized that officials are doing their job while misinformation spreads unchecked.

Trump himself has claimed without evidence that fraud occurred in the Los Angeles mayoral race, labeling it "rigged" on Truth Social. His assertions follow announcements of multiple election fraud investigations by local authorities.

Over the weekend, U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli debunked a popular conspiracy theory claiming Pratt received zero votes in an update. Election experts predict that baseless fraud allegations will escalate leading into November's midterm elections.

Stephen Richer, former Republican recorder for Maricopa County, expressed concern about the impact of election denialism this November. He noted parallels between current misinformation tactics and those used during the 2020 election.

"And so now it seems that they're using these prediction market graphs to tell a similar story," Richer stated.