Trump's Backing Among Key MAGA Voters Plummets, Polling Expert Reveals

Support for Donald Trump is waning among non-college-educated voters, a demographic crucial to his past electoral victories, according to recent analysis. This shift poses a significant challenge for Republicans as they gear up for the 2024 election.

Polling expert Harry Enten highlighted a stark contrast in Trump's approval ratings within this group. Initially, Trump held a 14-point advantage over Kamala Harris, but that dynamic has reversed, leaving him with a nine-point deficit among these voters.

“He is underwater by nine points,” Enten stated during a broadcast on Monday. “That’s a 23-point switcheroo with his base of non-college voters. He is absolutely collapsing with the group of voters that helped put him into the White House.”

Enten's analysis also revealed that this demographic is distancing itself from the Republican Party as the 2026 midterms approach, although the GOP still maintains a slight net-positive approval rating.

“What we’re dealing with is a Donald Trump message that is not actually meeting the reality,” Enten explained, noting that this disconnect is driving non-college voters away from both Trump and the Republican Party.

A key element of Trump's appeal to this group was his promise that aggressive tariffs would revive American manufacturing jobs lost to offshoring. However, this promise has yet to materialize, with manufacturing jobs decreasing by approximately 70,000 in 2025 alone, continuing a trend of decline.

Additionally, support for Trump is faltering among evangelical Protestants, another vital segment of his base. Research from the Pew Research Center indicates that while this group remains largely supportive of Trump, fewer members express approval for his plans, job performance, or ethical conduct in office.

Currently, only 37 percent of all voters approve of Trump's job performance, and just 39 percent endorse his handling of the economy, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll.

Despite these troubling indicators, Trump continues to project optimism and make claims about his public support that do not align with polling data. Last week, he asserted that his polling numbers are the highest he has “ever received,” even as his approval ratings decline during his second term.

“Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!” Trump declared on Truth Social.