Democrats Surge in Governor Races in Trump Strongholds

The Cook Political Report has flipped two governor races toward Democrats just days before the midterm elections, with Nebraska and Kansas—states where President Donald Trump previously crushed his opponent in the 2024 presidential election.

The gubernatorial contest in Nebraska now shifts from likely Republican to lean Republican, while Kansas moves from lean Republican to a toss-up. This marks a significant change in the political landscape.

Midterm elections typically serve as a litmus test for the party in power, with historical trends showing that the president's party often loses seats. Trump decisively won both Kansas and Nebraska against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump's approval ratings have taken a hit, particularly on key issues like the economy and immigration, as affordability concerns plague households nationwide. These polling lows coincide with Trump's extensive campaigning across the country to support vulnerable GOP candidates ahead of November 3.

In Kansas, the gubernatorial race is influenced by a competitive U.S. Senate battle between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Internal polling from Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher has also contributed to this shift.

Cook notes that while Republicans remain optimistic about flipping the Kansas race, the volatility warrants its classification as more competitive. Ty Masterson, backed by Trump, has led in most polls against Holscher.

Holscher responded to Cook's report on social media, declaring, "BREAKING NEWS: Cook Political Report has officially moved our race to a TOSS-UP! Despite over $20 million in spending against us, the momentum is clearly on our side. All gas, no brakes."

In Nebraska, Cook cites internal polling and a crowded ballot as reasons for the shift. The presence of Rick Beard from the Legal Marijuana Now Party and Brett Lindstrom from the America First Party complicates the race.

Jim Pillen, the Republican incumbent backed by Trump, leads in most recent polling.

Cook highlights that an America First candidate could siphon votes from Pillen, while a Legal Marijuana Now candidate might draw support away from Lynne Walz.

Sophie Mestas, spokesperson for Walz's campaign, stated that this shift reflects what they observe on the ground: "Nebraskans know what's at stake, and they're ready for a Governor who works for them."

Mestas criticized Pillen's tenure, claiming he prioritizes himself and his allies over Nebraskans. She asserted that Walz has garnered support statewide and is not slowing down with only a week left until the election.

Overall, Cook predicts Democrats could gain two to four gubernatorial seats this midterm cycle. Republicans have held a majority of governorships for nearly two decades, with a brief Democratic period from around 2007 to 2011. There are 36 gubernatorial seats up for grabs next week, with both parties currently holding 18 each.

A recent YouGov survey in Nebraska indicated Walz at 43 percent compared to Pillen's 44 percent, with 2 percent undecided and 10 percent not voting. This poll surveyed 1,809 likely voters from September 24 to October 3 and had a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

On prediction market site Kalshi, Pillen holds an 82 percent chance of winning against Walz's 18 percent. Polymarket reflected the same odds on Tuesday night.

In Kansas, a YouGov poll shows Masterson at 47 percent versus Holscher's 44 percent, with 1 percent undecided and 7 percent not voting. This poll surveyed 2,255 likely voters from September 24 to October 4 and had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

A New York Times and Siena Research Institute poll indicates Masterson at 49 percent and Holscher at 44 percent, with 7 percent unsure or refusing to answer. This poll surveyed 605 likely voters from September 22 to September 30 and had a margin of error of 4.6 percent.

On Kalshi, Masterson is given a 73 percent chance compared to Holscher's 27 percent. Polymarket shows identical figures on Tuesday night.

Cook Political Report has shifted two governor's races toward Democrats one week before midterm elections.