Republican Senator Ted Cruz has thrown down the gauntlet, declaring that Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could very well be her party's presidential nominee in 2028. He cautioned the GOP not to underestimate her potential to win a general election.
While discussing the Michigan Senate race featuring Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, Cruz argued that if El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers, it would dismantle the narrative that Ocasio-Cortez is too progressive to secure a national victory.
“If El-Sayed wins, the Democrat nominee for president in 2028 will be AOC,” Cruz stated during a campaign event in Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan. He emphasized that the primary's main argument against Ocasio-Cortez is her perceived extremism.
No candidates have officially declared their intentions for the 2028 presidential race, including Ocasio-Cortez.
The Michigan Senate race is a focal point of the midterms, with El-Sayed, a progressive, facing off against former House lawmaker Rogers in a state pivotal for presidential elections. The outcome could influence perceptions of whether progressive Democrats can succeed in other competitive states.
Cruz posited that an El-Sayed victory would serve as proof that voters might support a similarly progressive candidate on a national scale.
He warned Republicans against complacency regarding an Ocasio-Cortez nomination, asserting that it wouldn't guarantee a GOP win.
“We’re a divided country,” Cruz remarked, citing the success of self-described Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York City as evidence of shifting voter sentiments.
“Look, if she is the nominee, she could win,” Cruz added bluntly.
Democratic strategist Eddie Vale advised caution in making predictions so far ahead of the next presidential election. He noted the unpredictable nature of current political dynamics and emphasized the need for humility regarding voter preferences.
Vale pointed out that it remains unclear which candidate might be best positioned for 2028, describing the primary process as a “long and grueling crucible.”
Ocasio-Cortez's office was contacted for comment but has not yet responded.
Prediction markets currently rank Ocasio-Cortez among the top contenders for the 2028 presidential election. An average of prices from various prediction platforms gives Republican Vice President JD Vance an 18.7 percent implied chance of winning, followed closely by Ocasio-Cortez at 11.8 percent.
Early polling shows a fragmented landscape. While Ocasio-Cortez is part of a crowded Democratic field, Vance has emerged as an early front-runner among Republicans, leading with 33 percent support among GOP voters—10 points ahead of Marco Rubio.
Cruz has also entered discussions about 2028 but faces significant hurdles. Oddschecker assigns him about a 2 percent implied chance of securing the Republican nomination, with RealClearPolling showing his support at 2.8 percent.
Cruz has expressed his presidential ambitions but has not formally announced a campaign for 2028.
He intensified his criticism of El-Sayed, claiming that his election could pose a national security threat if he were appointed to the Intelligence Committee.
“If I am correct that he is a passionate supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is a very real risk that Americans will die as a result,” Cruz asserted.
El-Sayed has denied any ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, which some governments have labeled as a terrorist organization. In an interview, he dismissed allegations against himself and his family as unfounded.
“I have no ties. We have no ties,” El-Sayed stated firmly. He also questioned why he should be held accountable for activities dating back to the 1970s.
Cruz claimed that El-Sayed could potentially compromise national security by alerting suspected terrorists about U.S. operations.
"We have every reason to believe that Abdul El-Sayed, if he found out that they're about to apprehend these terrorists, that he would let those terrorists know," Cruz continued.
In response to Cruz's comments, El-Sayed's campaign spokesperson criticized him as an unpopular politician whose policies harm Michigan families.
A recent WDIV-TV/Detroit News poll indicated El-Sayed leading Rogers by 6.3 points among likely voters, with 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent and 3.6 percent undecided.
The Glengariff Group surveyed 600 likely voters from October 19 to October 22, yielding a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. El-Sayed also enjoys a higher favorable rating than Rogers, at 42.2 percent compared to 32.2 percent.
Other polling suggests a tighter race; an InsiderAdvantage survey had El-Sayed ahead by just one point, while a Marist poll showed him leading by two points among likely voters.
Michigan is one of several battlegrounds critical for Senate control in 2026, including a key race in Cruz's home state of Texas.
Democrats must defend their seats and flip four Republican-held seats to regain majority control in the Senate.
The Michigan race is rated as a toss-up by Cook Political Report and Lean Democrat by Sabato's Crystal Ball.
