Election Odds Shift: Democrats Gain Ground, But GOP Still Dominates
A top election handicapper has shifted three Senate races toward Democrats, but Republicans still hold the upper hand in maintaining their majority. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics made these adjustments on Thursday, indicating a significant political landscape change.
The races in Alaska, North Carolina, and Ohio have all seen movement. Alaska's race has gone from leaning Republican to a toss-up. North Carolina has shifted from toss-up to leaning Democrat, while Ohio has also moved from leaning Republican to toss-up.
All three Senate seats are currently occupied by Republicans. This shift provides Democrats with a clearer, albeit challenging, path to a Senate majority come November.
Senator Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is vying for a third term and faces a crowded field in the state’s nonpartisan primary on August 18. The top four vote-getters will advance to the general election, with former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) expected to be his main competitor.
In the 2024 election, Alaska favored President Trump over Kamala Harris by 13 percentage points. However, Peltola performed significantly better than Harris, losing to Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) by just 2.5 points.
In Ohio, Senator Jon Husted (R-Ohio) will face off against former Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in November. A recent Fox News poll indicated Brown leading Husted 53%-45% for the final two years of Vice President JD Vance’s term.
Brown's performance outshines Harris's in 2024; he lost his re-election bid to Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) by 3.5 points, while Harris lost to Trump by 11 points.
North Carolina's race to replace retiring GOP Senator Thom Tillis features former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley against ex-Governor Roy Cooper. Cooper holds a fundraising advantage and has a history of success in the state, while Whatley’s strong support for Trump is a liability given the former president's declining favorability ratings in North Carolina.
A Carolina Journal survey from last month shows Cooper leading Whatley by 11 points. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics attributes these changes to broader political factors rather than specific developments in individual races.
Polling data, the president's low approval ratings, and the House generic ballot all contribute to this assessment. The Center for Politics warns that conditions have worsened for Republicans, suggesting that 2026 could mirror or exceed the challenges faced in 2018.
Despite these shifts, the handicapper emphasizes that Democrats must win every toss-up state—Ohio, Alaska, Maine, and Michigan—to secure a majority. In contrast, Republicans need only one of these states to maintain a nominal 50-50 majority due to their vice presidential tiebreaker advantage.
