Trump Impeachment Betting Odds Hit Unprecedented 69% on Major Prediction Market
President Donald Trump’s impeachment odds have surged to an all-time high, according to data from a leading online betting platform. Kalshi, a prominent prediction market, now estimates the likelihood of Trump facing impeachment at 69 percent, marking the highest figure since the platform's inception in November 2024.
This increase is notable; just a week after Trump’s election victory, the odds were a mere 33 percent. A year post-inauguration, they climbed to 59 percent, reflecting a growing sentiment among bettors.
On another betting site, Polymarket, the odds for Trump being formally charged by the House of Representatives currently sit at 46 percent. This market appears to have been established recently, with figures fluctuating around 50 percent since its launch.
Trump has not shied away from discussing impeachment since resuming office. "You gotta win the midterms cause, if we don't win the midterms…they'll find a reason to impeach me," he warned Republican lawmakers during a retreat in Washington, D.C., earlier this January. "I'll get impeached," he added, underscoring his concerns.
In a lighter moment, he joked about potential backlash during a call with the U.S. men’s hockey team after their gold medal win in Italy. Inviting them to the White House, he quipped, “I must tell you, we’re going to have to bring the women’s team, you do know that.” He continued, “If I fail to do this, I do believe I would probably be impeached.”
Impeachment is not new territory for Trump. He made history as the only U.S. president to be impeached twice during his first term—first in 2019 for allegedly pressuring Ukraine's president regarding Joe Biden and again in 2021 for inciting the January 6 Capitol riot. Both times, he was acquitted by the Senate.
However, despite the current betting trends, there is no certainty that Trump will face a record-breaking third impeachment. Betting markets are not infallible predictors; their track record is mixed at best.
For instance, on March 3, Polymarket projected Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton had an 83 percent chance of winning the Republican Senate primary. Ultimately, Paxton garnered only 40.7 percent of the vote against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn’s 41.9 percent, leading to a runoff.
Conversely, there have been successful predictions as well. Before the 2024 election, Polymarket estimated Trump’s chances of winning at over 61 percent; he ultimately triumphed over former Vice President Kamala Harris, sweeping all seven swing states.
As these platforms gain traction, they are also under scrutiny for potential insider trading implications. Just prior to a joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, traders on Polymarket were actively placing bets on the outcome. One user, known as “Magamyman,” reportedly profited $553,000 by correctly predicting the ousting of Iran’s supreme leader.
“It’s insane this is legal,” remarked Sen. Chris Murphy from Connecticut on social media. “People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
On March 17, Murphy proposed a bill aimed at prohibiting prediction markets from betting on government actions considered “ripe for rigging.” On the same day, Arizona became the first state to file criminal charges against Kalshi, alleging that the company was operating an illegal gambling business.
