Trump's Iran Offensive: The Countdown to Victory Declaration Begins
WASHINGTON – The question looms: when will Donald Trump announce victory in Iran?
This inquiry could dictate the duration of American troops' exposure to danger and the persistence of gasoline prices hovering around or exceeding $4 per gallon.
Historically, Trump has retreated from bold statements when economic turmoil loomed—a phenomenon dubbed TACO, short for “Trump always chickens out.” Yet, experts in economics and national security caution that even if he were to backtrack on his Iran strategy, significant damage has already been inflicted and will not be easily reversed.
“Even if this ended today, which seems unlikely, a considerable amount of resources has already been spent on the conflict. The prolonged period of elevated oil prices will have repercussions, and I anticipate ongoing uncertainty will keep oil prices high,” stated Jason Furman, a former top economist in the Obama administration and current Harvard professor. “Regardless of the outcome, we are and will continue to bear the costs.”
Officials from the Trump administration did not respond to inquiries regarding the situation.
On Monday, Trump asserted that the war was progressing ahead of schedule but refrained from providing a timeline for the continuation of airstrikes against Iran. He previously indicated that achieving his objectives would take weeks but has also expressed his intent to prevent Iran from replacing its deceased “supreme leader,” Ali Khamenei, with his son. Over the weekend, Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump remarked during an interview with CBS News. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.”
Wall Street traders, who coined the “TACO” acronym, appeared to anticipate a potential retreat from Trump. Stocks rose on Monday as oil prices fell below $90 per barrel after previously surging past $120.
However, predicting Trump’s next steps remains a complex endeavor. While many believed he would avoid deploying ground troops due to inevitable political backlash, neoconservative analyst Robert Kagan expressed skepticism.
“He had ample opportunity to declare victory last week. Now it appears to be a loss. Did we initiate this to replace Khamenei with his son? Why does he keep mentioning ground troops? Just discussing it is detrimental to the markets. I suspect that’s his current intention,” Kagan noted, drawing from his experience at the State Department during the Reagan era and his current role at the Brookings Institution. “Could a week of $100 oil alter his perspective? Absolutely.”
Even if no further escalations occur and crude oil begins flowing from the Persian Gulf shortly, experts warn that the adverse effects on American businesses and consumers, as well as the nation’s global standing, could persist for months or even years.
Within hours of initiating a massive bombing campaign, an American missile struck a school near an Iranian military base, resulting in approximately 175 fatalities, predominantly children. Seven U.S. service members were also killed or critically injured during those initial hours. This was followed by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which restricted a significant portion of global oil flow and incited attacks on oil infrastructure across the region by the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
“I foresee a ‘new normal’ in the Middle East that does not rely on U.S. defense support and an embittered Iran that is more hard-line and eager for retribution. Gulf states will heavily arm themselves,” predicted Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon and NATO official now affiliated with the Center for a New American Security. “Oil trade will resume but not swiftly; uncertainty about Iran targeting tankers or laying mines will linger.”
A former national security official from President Biden’s administration, speaking anonymously, indicated that Trump halting attacks on Iran does not guarantee a return to normalcy in oil transport.
“If Israel continues its strikes, I doubt it would alleviate shippers' fears,” the official remarked.
Trump’s tariffs had already begun to slow what was once a steadily growing economy. Inflation began to rise again following his “Liberation Day” tariff announcement last April, with job growth also decelerating. Last month saw a decline of 92,000 jobs according to federal data.
The conflict in Iran has exacerbated rising petroleum costs, pushing U.S. gasoline prices back toward $4 per gallon—a threshold many analysts predict will soon be surpassed.
On Monday morning, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi shared a chart illustrating significant price increases—crude oil up 58% and UK natural gas up 109%—while acknowledging that the U.S. is attempting to manage this inflation.
“Iran is fully prepared. And we too have many surprises in store,” he taunted, deriding Trump’s Operation Epic Fury as “Operation Epic Mistake.”
Beyond Iran's potential actions lie uncertainties introduced by Trump’s decisions into the global business landscape.
“The economic repercussions will not dissipate quickly, especially if the Iranian regime remains intact,” warned Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “A risk premium will persist in global oil and natural gas prices. The conflict reinforces perceptions that President Trump may undertake further actions worldwide that could heighten business uncertainty and escalate costs.”
Nonetheless, ending the conflict swiftly is deemed preferable for both the nation and the world by University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers.
“Reversing a reckless decision is always better than maintaining it,” Wolfers stated. “However, ongoing damage is inevitable either way. Businesses must factor in ‘what if Trump embarks on another reckless venture?’ into their strategies. Numerous businesses currently regret investments they believed would be profitable but now find them unviable amid Middle Eastern turmoil. They wish they had delayed or reconsidered their decisions. They won’t repeat that mistake next time.”
