Cuban Green Card Approvals Plummet 99.8% Amid Surge in ICE Arrests, Cato Analysis Reveals

Green card approvals for Cuban nationals have nearly ground to a halt, coinciding with a dramatic increase in ICE arrests, as revealed by a recent analysis from a prominent libertarian think tank.

Since December 2024, the approval rate for green cards among Cubans has plummeted by 99.8%, while ICE arrests have skyrocketed by 463%. In October 2024, over 10,000 Cubans were granted lawful permanent residency; by January 2026, that number dwindled to just 15, according to findings reported by local media.

This sharp decline has significantly impacted a demographic historically afforded different treatment under U.S. immigration law. The Cuban Adjustment Act has long enabled many Cubans to apply for permanent residency after residing in the U.S. for one year and one day, creating a unique pathway for this group, particularly in South Florida, which hosts the largest Cuban American population in the nation.

The Cato Institute's report indicates that this exception has effectively been frozen.

"The Trump administration has drastically reduced legal immigration from abroad," stated David J. Bier, director of immigration studies at Cato, "but it has simultaneously slashed grants of legal permanent residence to people already in the United States." He noted that the Department of Homeland Security halted numerous green card applications, enabling ICE to detain immigrants who might have otherwise secured more stable legal status.

The report highlights that green card approvals for Cubans have nearly ceased while ICE arrests surged from fewer than 200 monthly in late 2024 to over 1,000 by late 2025. "This is a dramatic curtailing of immigration from Cuba," Bier remarked.

Several policies enacted during the Trump administration are linked to this shift. In February 2025, USCIS suspended immigration benefit requests for individuals who entered under the Biden-era parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans. The administration subsequently terminated the parole program and revoked underlying parole status for many migrants, increasing their vulnerability to arrest and deportation. By December 2025, USCIS also suspended adjustments of status and other immigration benefit requests for Cubans and applicants from various countries.

As a result, many Cubans find themselves in a state of legal limbo. Having entered the U.S. legally and applied for residency under the Cuban Adjustment Act, their cases have stalled amid heightened enforcement.

This policy change carries political ramifications in Miami-Dade County, where Cuban Americans constitute a significant Republican voting bloc but do not uniformly endorse deportations to Cuba. A recent poll indicated that 68% of Cubans and Cuban Americans in South Florida disapprove of escalating deportations of undocumented Cubans without criminal records. The same survey revealed widespread support for facilitating legal migration for Cubans to the U.S.

Cato posits that the decline in Cuban immigration numbers reflects a broader enforcement strategy aimed at obstructing or delaying legal status. The report found that overall green card approvals have been cut by approximately half, with humanitarian categories—including Cubans, refugees, asylees, and crime victims—experiencing the most significant reductions.

This shift complicates Republican politics in Miami. While Trump retains popularity among many Cuban American and Venezuelan American voters, deportations remain a politically sensitive issue due to the authoritarian regimes in both countries and the risks faced by dissidents and those fleeing political or economic turmoil.

Cuban American representatives María Elvira Salazar, Mario Díaz-Balart, and Carlos Gimenez are encountering formidable Democratic challengers ahead of the November midterm elections. Immigration and inflation are emerging as pivotal issues among constituents.