Democrat Cait Conley Crushes GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in Polling Shocker
Democrat Cait Conley is smashing Republican Rep. Michael Lawler in a poll that shows her with a 6-percentage-point lead in a fiercely contested New York swing district. The numbers? Conley at 51%, Lawler at 45% among likely voters.
This survey, conducted by FM3 Research for the House Majority PAC, ran from June 27 to July 1. It reveals a staggering 55% of voters in the Hudson Valley's 17th congressional district view Lawler unfavorably, while only 39% hold a favorable opinion of him.
President Trump’s numbers are equally dismal, with 60% of respondents viewing him unfavorably and just 38% favorably. The poll sampled 509 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The 17th District encompasses Rockland and Putnam counties, northern Westchester County, and parts of southern Dutchess County. The independent Cook Political Report has labeled this race a toss-up, making it one of the most significant House contests nationwide.
Lawler, a former state assemblyman, is gunning for a third term. He previously fought to restore the state and local tax deduction on federal income tax returns and has been a vocal supporter of Israel.
In 2022, Lawler narrowly defeated ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who chaired the House Democratic Campaign Committee. He also easily took down ex-Congressman Mondaire Jones in 2024.
Conley emerged victorious in a competitive Democratic primary to challenge Lawler. The stakes are high; control of the House of Representatives could hinge on the outcome of House races in New York, where Republicans currently hold a slim six-seat majority at 218-212, with four vacancies and one independent member.
A West Point Military Academy graduate, Conley served as director of counterterrorism on the National Security Council during the Biden administration and has six overseas deployments under her belt from her time in the US Army.
“Mike Lawler is a slimy politician who has consistently voted to raise gas prices, cut health care, and make life more expensive. NY-17 has had enough and in November, Cait Conley will be elected to Congress,” declared House Majority PAC spokesman CJ Warnke.
The Lawler camp dismissed the poll as “cooked up.” Lawler campaign spokesman Chris Russell stated, “No one with half a brain believes this made-up poll cooked up by a far-left group.”
Lawler’s team shifted focus to Conley, questioning her absence from debates. “What voters do care about is why Cait Conley is ducking debates with Congressman Lawler so she can continue to hide her corrupt, no-show job with AI and big tech companies that pays her over $300k per year, and why she wants to raise taxes by $4,000 a year on Hudson Valley families when she’s never paid taxes here herself,” Russell added.
Lawler has previously raised concerns about Conley’s consulting work with two tech companies, Primer AI and Hidden Level, which do business with the defense department and have ties to Palantir—a company known for providing technical support to ICE in tracking immigrants.
Republicans have already spent money attacking Conley during the Democratic primary, signaling their belief that she poses the strongest challenge to Lawler.
